Fully Vested

The Case of Cat Modeling

Episode Summary

Jason and Graham return for a new season of Fully Vested. This time, we chat about generative artificial intelligence, its applications, and some of its discontents.

Episode Notes

Many of the core technologies behind Generative AI are not exactly brand new. For example, the "Attention Is All You Need" paper, which described and introduced the Transformer model (the "T" in ChatGPT), was published in 2017. Diffusion models—the backbone of image generation tools like StableDiffusion and DALL-e—were introduced in 2015 and were originally inspired by thermodynamic modeling techniques. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) were introduced in 2014.

However, Generative AI has seemingly taken the world by storm over the past couple years. In this episode, Graham and Jason discuss—in broad strokes—what Generative AI is, what's required to train and run foundation models, where the value lies, and frontier challenges.

Fact-Checking And Corrections

Before we begin...

Applied Machine Learning 101

Not all AI and applied machine learning models are created equally, and models can be designed to complete specific types of tasks. Broadly speaking, there are two types of applied machine learning models: Discriminative and Generative.

Discriminative AI

Definition: Discriminative AI focuses on learning the boundary between different classes of data from a given set of training data. Unlike generative models that learn to generate data, discriminative models learn to differentiate between classes and make predictions or decisions based on the input data.

Historical Background TLDR:

Pop Culture Example(s):

**Real-World Example(s

Further Reading:

Generative AI

Definition: Generative AI refers to a type of artificial intelligence that is capable of generating new data samples that are similar to a given set of training data. This is achieved through algorithms that learn the underlying patterns, structures, and distributions inherent in the training data, and can generate novel data points with similar properties.

Historical Background TLDR:

Pop Culture Example:

Real-World Example(s):

Further Reading:

Further Reading By Topic

In rough order of when these topics were mentioned in the episode...

Economic/Industry Impacts of AI

How Large Language Models Will Transform Science, Society, and AI (Alex Tamkin and Deep Ganguli for Stanford HAI's blog, February 2021)

The Economic Potential of Generative AI: The Next Productivity Frontier ( McKinsey & Co., June 2023)

Generative AI Could Raise Global GDP by 7% (Goldman Sachs, April 2023)

Generative AI Promises an Economic Revolution. Managing the Disruption Will Be Crucial. (Bob Fernandez for WSJ Pro Central Banking, August 2023)

The Economic Case for Generative AI and Foundation Models (Martin Casado and Sarah Wang for the Andreessen Horowitz Enterprise blog, August 2023)

Generative AI and the software development lifecycle(Birgitta Böckeler and Ryan Murray for Thoughtworks, September 2023)

How generative AI is changing the way developers work (Damian Brady for The GitHub Blog, April 2023)

The AI Business Defensibility Problem (Jay F. publishing on their Substack, The Data Stream)

Using Language Models Effectively

The emerging types of language models and why they matter (Kyle Wiggers for TechCrunch, April 2023)

Prompt Engineering (Lilian Weng on her blog Lil'Log, March 2023)

Prompt Engineering Techniques: Chain-of-Thought & Tree-of-Thought (both by Brad Nikkel for the Deepgram blog)

11 Tips to Take Your ChatGPT Prompts to the Next Level (David Nield for WIRED, March 2023)

Prompt Engineering 101 (Raza Habib and Sinan Ozdemir for the Humanloop blog, December 2022)

Here There Be Dragons

Hallucinations

Data Poisoning & Related

Intellectual Property and Fair Use

Academic and Creative "Honesty"

Human Costs of AI Training (Picking on OpenAI here, but RLHF and similar fine-tuning techniques are employed by many/most LLM developers)

Big Questions

Adam Smith and the Pin Factory

📚 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith (via Project Gutenberg)

Division of Labor and Specialization (Econlib)

Adam Smith and the Pin Factory (John Kay on his blog, September 2019)

The Pin Factory (Adam Smith Works, a project of the Liberty Fund)

Adam Smith and Pin-making: Some Inconvenient Truths (Timothy Taylor publishing on his blog, Conversable Economist. August 2022)

Also Mentioned

Training Datasets

The Pile

ImageNet

Articles and Books

(Alleged) Leaked Google memo mentioned at around 48:05 Google "We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI (SemiAnalysis publishing a whitepaper, allegedly written by a Google staff member, which suggested that open source advancements pose an existential threat to both Google and OpenAI. May 2023)

Infinite Jest (Wikipedia page on the 1996 novel by the late David Foster Wallace), mentioned around 54:30

History of Faxes vs. Emails

In reference to 1:08:30 or thereabouts:

A fun fact which blew our mind: The earliest instances of facsimile transmission stretch back to the 1890s, and the core technology matured up through the 1940s. The first telephonic fax patent was filed in 1964 by Xerox Corporation.

The first email was sent in 1971.